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2008/6/1 22：57
Serious crisis -- decline of obstetricians 分類なし
For Japan now, the worst threat is neither China nor Korea but its demographic issue -- declining birth rate and aging and shrinking population.
Even worth, the recently released report shows that the seriouness of the demographic issue is increasing, for your ref.>"10% of Japanese at least 75" & "Older women nudged fertility rate up in 2007"
Current Japan more and more aging without recovery of its birthrate. Japan has already not a simple "aging society" but "A 'full-scale' gray society"
At administrative level, countermeasures are not adopted so much because "demographic issue is not that politicians can attract interests of eligible voters."
Generally speaking, most eligible voters are very short sighted and interested in their daily living standard, not in future of Japan.
Even though what king of idea and ideal politicians have, it is difficult for them to argue and execute political measures that force voters to accept pains.
In democratic system, political measures are prone to be short sighted because most voters lack "big picture" of their country, and are reluctant to accept pains even if that is necessary for their whole country.
So "populism" is a most easy way to win support of voters and to be elected in a democratic system.
In this context, countermeasures for aging and shrinking population are far from ones that are favored by voters.
In short, essential meaning of countermeasures for aging and shrinking population is "push every and each national's living standard down to save fiscal money, then expend that money to boost birthrate up for the future of the country."
In addition, aging and shrinking population is not an issue that nationals feel pain instantly.
Even if most nationals can understand necessity of that, they are reluctant to accept that in reality as far as they don't feel severe pains.
Namely, long term political agenda such as aging and shrinking population are unlikely to be counter-measured pre-emptively in democratic system.
Usually, it is after severe pains emerge that bold and structural counter measures are introduced at administrative level. In this meaning, France and Northern Europe countries are exception, for your ref.>"翻訳：出生率、楽観論が出産を促す"
But at field level, various countermeasures have been already introduced.
At first, pains of demographic issue emerge at working field level, especially in so called "3K" working fields -- Kiken(risky), Kitanai(dirty) and Kurushi(tough).
It is well known that Japanese-Brazilian immigrant workers are welcomed during the bubble economy in many manufacturing sectors.
Even though after the bubble burst, many regions in Japan depend on them as indispensable work forces, for your ref.>"日本の中の外国 -- 水面下で進行する移民受入れ"
Recently, caring industry is opening its door to foreigners gradually, for your ref.>"EPAs clearing way for foreign caregivers"
Even though there are severe rejection, inviting FDI into Japan is progressing slowing but firmly, for your ref.>"FDI into social and economic infrastructure"
Even though it involves some side effects, acceptance of immigrants is an easy and prompt countermeasure for demographic issue, for your ref.>"Bar to kids' citizenship ruled illegal" & "Giving children their due"
Byt at the same time, Japan must tackle to push birthrate up for the sake of "going concern" of the country.
Especially, population draign issue is serious in rural areas, for your ref.>"Sustainable rural municipalities"
Indeed, even though Japan's birthrate is a little bit recovered to 1.32, it is far below sustainable figure. For the sake of sustain of population in the long term, birthrate should be 2.1.
In this meaning, moves of administration is slow and trivial. In order to push birthrate up, Japan should do all what it can by all means, shouldn't it?
For example, Japan is reluctant to promote more and more artificial re-production, for your ref.>"Fertility clinics hit by rapid decline"
It is obviously inaction and negligence of the administration in preparation of daycare facilities, economic aid for households with child, legisrations to force firms to provide working field that makes giving birth and child caring easy.
Now, another serious problem is emerging -- declining number of applicants for obstetrician. Frankly speaking, medical care involves uncertainty so that some medical accidents are unavoidable to some extent.
Once, fecundity and many death was a principle of re-production. Stillbirth was not rare. Even if child was born without problem, he or she was prone to die in process of growing.
And parents took that for granted. But it is no longer true in developed countries.
In Japan, many parents are likely to give small number of children. So they are prone to focus their all expectation to one or two children.
In addition, they take safety delivery for granted, reluctant to accept medical accidents. Medical knowledge acquired from books or internet promote such tendency, and raise the number of lawsuits of delivery accident.
As the result, it is only natural that obstetricians cower and medical students are reluctant to become obstetrician.
If Japan leaves this tendency unattended, seriousness of declining birthrate and aging and shrinking population will only accelerate.
Needless to say, in order to push birthrate up, Japan should boost the number or obstetrician. But what kind of countermeasures are effective to reverse such social tendency?
I don't have good ideas. It is easy to say "parents should accept the fact that medical incidents are unavoidable to some extent." But I don't think they will accept that.
For your ref.>Aging & Shrinking population
>More people dying alone
>Negligible rise in fertility rate
>A wave of migrating brains and barbarians
>THE VIEW FROM EUROPE. As Europe's barriers rise, Japan's decline
>Population control, The marathon's not over
>First nurses arrive from Indonesia
>Shot in the arm for nursing care
>'Pioneering' Indonesian caregivers now face true test
>Helping hand for immigrants
>Acquitted of negligence
>Doctor acquitted of C-section death
>Japan's foreign workers
>Reviewing medical treatment
Even worth, the recently released report shows that the seriouness of the demographic issue is increasing, for your ref.>"10% of Japanese at least 75" & "Older women nudged fertility rate up in 2007"
Current Japan more and more aging without recovery of its birthrate. Japan has already not a simple "aging society" but "A 'full-scale' gray society"
At administrative level, countermeasures are not adopted so much because "demographic issue is not that politicians can attract interests of eligible voters."
Generally speaking, most eligible voters are very short sighted and interested in their daily living standard, not in future of Japan.
Even though what king of idea and ideal politicians have, it is difficult for them to argue and execute political measures that force voters to accept pains.
In democratic system, political measures are prone to be short sighted because most voters lack "big picture" of their country, and are reluctant to accept pains even if that is necessary for their whole country.
So "populism" is a most easy way to win support of voters and to be elected in a democratic system.
In this context, countermeasures for aging and shrinking population are far from ones that are favored by voters.
In short, essential meaning of countermeasures for aging and shrinking population is "push every and each national's living standard down to save fiscal money, then expend that money to boost birthrate up for the future of the country."
In addition, aging and shrinking population is not an issue that nationals feel pain instantly.
Even if most nationals can understand necessity of that, they are reluctant to accept that in reality as far as they don't feel severe pains.
Namely, long term political agenda such as aging and shrinking population are unlikely to be counter-measured pre-emptively in democratic system.
Usually, it is after severe pains emerge that bold and structural counter measures are introduced at administrative level. In this meaning, France and Northern Europe countries are exception, for your ref.>"翻訳：出生率、楽観論が出産を促す"
But at field level, various countermeasures have been already introduced.
At first, pains of demographic issue emerge at working field level, especially in so called "3K" working fields -- Kiken(risky), Kitanai(dirty) and Kurushi(tough).
It is well known that Japanese-Brazilian immigrant workers are welcomed during the bubble economy in many manufacturing sectors.
Even though after the bubble burst, many regions in Japan depend on them as indispensable work forces, for your ref.>"日本の中の外国 -- 水面下で進行する移民受入れ"
Recently, caring industry is opening its door to foreigners gradually, for your ref.>"EPAs clearing way for foreign caregivers"
Even though there are severe rejection, inviting FDI into Japan is progressing slowing but firmly, for your ref.>"FDI into social and economic infrastructure"
Even though it involves some side effects, acceptance of immigrants is an easy and prompt countermeasure for demographic issue, for your ref.>"Bar to kids' citizenship ruled illegal" & "Giving children their due"
Byt at the same time, Japan must tackle to push birthrate up for the sake of "going concern" of the country.
Especially, population draign issue is serious in rural areas, for your ref.>"Sustainable rural municipalities"
Indeed, even though Japan's birthrate is a little bit recovered to 1.32, it is far below sustainable figure. For the sake of sustain of population in the long term, birthrate should be 2.1.
In this meaning, moves of administration is slow and trivial. In order to push birthrate up, Japan should do all what it can by all means, shouldn't it?
For example, Japan is reluctant to promote more and more artificial re-production, for your ref.>"Fertility clinics hit by rapid decline"
It is obviously inaction and negligence of the administration in preparation of daycare facilities, economic aid for households with child, legisrations to force firms to provide working field that makes giving birth and child caring easy.
Now, another serious problem is emerging -- declining number of applicants for obstetrician. Frankly speaking, medical care involves uncertainty so that some medical accidents are unavoidable to some extent.
Once, fecundity and many death was a principle of re-production. Stillbirth was not rare. Even if child was born without problem, he or she was prone to die in process of growing.
And parents took that for granted. But it is no longer true in developed countries.
In Japan, many parents are likely to give small number of children. So they are prone to focus their all expectation to one or two children.
In addition, they take safety delivery for granted, reluctant to accept medical accidents. Medical knowledge acquired from books or internet promote such tendency, and raise the number of lawsuits of delivery accident.
As the result, it is only natural that obstetricians cower and medical students are reluctant to become obstetrician.
If Japan leaves this tendency unattended, seriousness of declining birthrate and aging and shrinking population will only accelerate.
Needless to say, in order to push birthrate up, Japan should boost the number or obstetrician. But what kind of countermeasures are effective to reverse such social tendency?
I don't have good ideas. It is easy to say "parents should accept the fact that medical incidents are unavoidable to some extent." But I don't think they will accept that.
For your ref.>Aging & Shrinking population
>More people dying alone
>Negligible rise in fertility rate
>A wave of migrating brains and barbarians
>THE VIEW FROM EUROPE. As Europe's barriers rise, Japan's decline
>Population control, The marathon's not over
>First nurses arrive from Indonesia
>Shot in the arm for nursing care
>'Pioneering' Indonesian caregivers now face true test
>Helping hand for immigrants
>Acquitted of negligence
>Doctor acquitted of C-section death
>Japan's foreign workers
>Reviewing medical treatment
