2008/7/20 22：13
End of globalization, at least partly 分類なし
Generally, so called "globalization" means that of economic activities. Especially, globalization is understood that it was started since the end of the Cold War.
As the result of collapse of the Soviet Union, ideological confrontation has become obsolete.
Ex. communism eastern European countries has liberalized and entered the EU, and giant multi-national western companies has expanded their activities more globally.
Nowadays, process of globalization is still on going. For example, the more economic activities has become globalized, the more common regulations, rules and business customs are necessary.
Indeed, corporate accounting standards are gradually converting into one standard.
Concretely speaking, the EU and the U.S. are negotiating to let their standards to be equivalent, and Japan is following this move, for your ref.>"Global Standard of the corporate accounting"
Not to mention, a jolt of participation of China and India participation to the global economy is significant. As both countries have vast territory and population, economic growth of them has been giving various effects on the world.
Especially, as a neighboring country, Japan is suffering various influences from a rising dragon, China.
For example, prolonged deflation can't be takled without influences from imported "dramatic cheap made in China products."
In addition, so called "working poor" issue is also related to China. For the sake of competition and survival, Japan's firms can't be helped but to depend on temporary staff to reduce labor costs.
If they had not done that, they would've been forced to fail or remove their domestic facilities to abroad such as China, India or Vietnam.
Good or worse, "working poor" is one of the prospects of the globalization, for your ref.>"Transformation of working customs in Japan"
Another influence is the revival of "commodities" such as underground resources and staples. The more emerging economies achieve economic growth, the more resources they demand.
As the result, it is only natural that prices of commodities are rising. In addition, speculative money is pouring into comodity-market and pushing up prices.
Here, movement o crude oil prices typically shows this phenomenon.
In the '90s, prices of WTI (typical light and sweet crude oil) declined under $10/barrel. But as crude oil demand is increasing, prices is rising rapidly -- recently around $130/barrel.
Crude oil price-hike can be likened as tax levy from oil exporters to oil importer.
According to one estimation, approx. \200 trillion will transfer from oil importers such as North America, Europe and Asia to oil exporters such as Middle East and Russia in 2008 if crude oil prices remain at around $140/barrel.
In this prospect, money of equivalent to 5%-strong of its GDP is expected to be flew out from Japan. For example, as fuel costs is amounting, fishermen expressed their difficulty via united action of strike, for your rev.>"Fishermen fed up" & "Fishermen's strike sliced Tsukiji stocks 20%, raised prices"
Some criticize enormous speculative money, for your ref.>"Speculators to blame for inflation: METI"
Some hopes to attract affluent oil money to Japan, for your ref.>"Nukaga chases investment by oil producers"
Anyway, not only crude oil but also almost all kind of prices of comodities are rising as the result of globalization of economic activity.
And, ironically, it seems that this will stale globalization at least partly sooner or later.
I mean not "standard, regulation and rule" but "trade" will lose its momentum within short as transportation costs will erode merit and profit of international trade.
When transportation cost is cheap, importing cheap made in China products can enjoy high profitability. But when transportation cost rises, retail prices of imported goods also rise.
Recently, both material cost of shipbuilding and fuel cost of marine transportation are rising so that imported goods will lose their price competitive edge against domestic products sooner or later.
In other words, transportation cost will be a next generation of trade barrier.
Recently, negotiation of a next generation of trade round comes to a deadlock, for your ref.>"World trade, Defrosting Doha" & "翻訳；ドーハラウンドの失敗"
But negotiation itself could become meaning less when international trade loses its momentum.
Off course, trade of natural resources and basic staples won't stop because their production is restricted geographically. But when it comes to industrial products, it is a different story.
From an another view point, it is an opportunity for Japan to revitalize its farming sector and push food self-support rate up.
Japan's farming is restricted by neither geography nor weather, but by production costs and shortage of successors.
If Japan introduces necessary farming policy measures boldly, it will be able to revitalize farming, for your ref.>'The era of food shortage, or even "crisis"'
Anyway, it is very likely that globalization for past nealy 2decade will lose its momentum at least in specific field within short.
In short, restriction of natural resorces and environmental issue won't tolerate infinite global economic expansion. Total population of so called industialized countries is approx. 700 million.
But conbined population of China and India is over 2 billion, and it is rapidly increasing morever. The earth will soon raach its limit.
Until recently, I thought that globalization was a irreversible move. But I am just changing my opinion.
What will happen after slowing down of globalization? I am not sure so much. But paradigm shift of world structure would happen.
Taking decline of the U.S. hegemony and shift of wealth and power to natural resources rich countries into consideration, multi-polar dominate structure could be one of the promising future figures, for your ref.>"New world order is long overdue"
>World trade, Dried up
>The death of Doha?
>Trade talks, The Doha round...& round...& round
>Don't cry over Doha failure as the stakes were inflated
>Business in China. High seas, high prices
>Globalisation & health care, Operating profit
>Free trade system is in danger of extinction
>Trade, Afta Doha
>Regional trade agreements, A second-best choice
As the result of collapse of the Soviet Union, ideological confrontation has become obsolete.
Ex. communism eastern European countries has liberalized and entered the EU, and giant multi-national western companies has expanded their activities more globally.
Nowadays, process of globalization is still on going. For example, the more economic activities has become globalized, the more common regulations, rules and business customs are necessary.
Indeed, corporate accounting standards are gradually converting into one standard.
Concretely speaking, the EU and the U.S. are negotiating to let their standards to be equivalent, and Japan is following this move, for your ref.>"Global Standard of the corporate accounting"
Not to mention, a jolt of participation of China and India participation to the global economy is significant. As both countries have vast territory and population, economic growth of them has been giving various effects on the world.
Especially, as a neighboring country, Japan is suffering various influences from a rising dragon, China.
For example, prolonged deflation can't be takled without influences from imported "dramatic cheap made in China products."
In addition, so called "working poor" issue is also related to China. For the sake of competition and survival, Japan's firms can't be helped but to depend on temporary staff to reduce labor costs.
If they had not done that, they would've been forced to fail or remove their domestic facilities to abroad such as China, India or Vietnam.
Good or worse, "working poor" is one of the prospects of the globalization, for your ref.>"Transformation of working customs in Japan"
Another influence is the revival of "commodities" such as underground resources and staples. The more emerging economies achieve economic growth, the more resources they demand.
As the result, it is only natural that prices of commodities are rising. In addition, speculative money is pouring into comodity-market and pushing up prices.
Here, movement o crude oil prices typically shows this phenomenon.
In the '90s, prices of WTI (typical light and sweet crude oil) declined under $10/barrel. But as crude oil demand is increasing, prices is rising rapidly -- recently around $130/barrel.
Crude oil price-hike can be likened as tax levy from oil exporters to oil importer.
According to one estimation, approx. \200 trillion will transfer from oil importers such as North America, Europe and Asia to oil exporters such as Middle East and Russia in 2008 if crude oil prices remain at around $140/barrel.
In this prospect, money of equivalent to 5%-strong of its GDP is expected to be flew out from Japan. For example, as fuel costs is amounting, fishermen expressed their difficulty via united action of strike, for your rev.>"Fishermen fed up" & "Fishermen's strike sliced Tsukiji stocks 20%, raised prices"
Some criticize enormous speculative money, for your ref.>"Speculators to blame for inflation: METI"
Some hopes to attract affluent oil money to Japan, for your ref.>"Nukaga chases investment by oil producers"
Anyway, not only crude oil but also almost all kind of prices of comodities are rising as the result of globalization of economic activity.
And, ironically, it seems that this will stale globalization at least partly sooner or later.
I mean not "standard, regulation and rule" but "trade" will lose its momentum within short as transportation costs will erode merit and profit of international trade.
When transportation cost is cheap, importing cheap made in China products can enjoy high profitability. But when transportation cost rises, retail prices of imported goods also rise.
Recently, both material cost of shipbuilding and fuel cost of marine transportation are rising so that imported goods will lose their price competitive edge against domestic products sooner or later.
In other words, transportation cost will be a next generation of trade barrier.
Recently, negotiation of a next generation of trade round comes to a deadlock, for your ref.>"World trade, Defrosting Doha" & "翻訳；ドーハラウンドの失敗"
But negotiation itself could become meaning less when international trade loses its momentum.
Off course, trade of natural resources and basic staples won't stop because their production is restricted geographically. But when it comes to industrial products, it is a different story.
From an another view point, it is an opportunity for Japan to revitalize its farming sector and push food self-support rate up.
Japan's farming is restricted by neither geography nor weather, but by production costs and shortage of successors.
If Japan introduces necessary farming policy measures boldly, it will be able to revitalize farming, for your ref.>'The era of food shortage, or even "crisis"'
Anyway, it is very likely that globalization for past nealy 2decade will lose its momentum at least in specific field within short.
In short, restriction of natural resorces and environmental issue won't tolerate infinite global economic expansion. Total population of so called industialized countries is approx. 700 million.
But conbined population of China and India is over 2 billion, and it is rapidly increasing morever. The earth will soon raach its limit.
Until recently, I thought that globalization was a irreversible move. But I am just changing my opinion.
What will happen after slowing down of globalization? I am not sure so much. But paradigm shift of world structure would happen.
Taking decline of the U.S. hegemony and shift of wealth and power to natural resources rich countries into consideration, multi-polar dominate structure could be one of the promising future figures, for your ref.>"New world order is long overdue"
>World trade, Dried up
>The death of Doha?
>Trade talks, The Doha round...& round...& round
>Don't cry over Doha failure as the stakes were inflated
>Business in China. High seas, high prices
>Globalisation & health care, Operating profit
>Free trade system is in danger of extinction
>Trade, Afta Doha
>Regional trade agreements, A second-best choice
